Nature, science and lore behind winter weather forecast for 2024-25

Posted: Thu. Oct. 17/24

banner photo: Yannick Menard

What can squirrel's tails tell us about the coming winter? What can you learn about the coming snow season by cutting into a persimmon fruit? There are many secrets to understanding weather, both scientific and traditional.

But few have invested more time into the pursuit than Peter Geiger, editor emeritus of The Farmers' Almanac. (Geiger spent 45 years at the helm as editor, before handing over the reins to Sandi Duncan in 2024.)

"Before there was anything, there were people gathering observations, whether it was squirrels gathering nuts early, acorns falling from trees earlier or the hair on a cow, the thickness of corn husks…

Photo: Ainārs Cekuls

Can cow's hide depth tell us anything about the winter to come? Natural observations like these may be clues.

"You know, weather is interesting but… if you go back to the 1700s, 1800s, people had to be prepared, they observed." (For a deeper look into traditional, naturalist weather observation, check out the Almanac's list of 20 signs of a hard winter.)

But Geiger is quick to stress, the forecasts the almanac puts out are built on more than just naturalist observations.

As only the seventh and eighth editors in the 200-year plus history of the publication, respectively, Geiger and Duncan are the inheritors of a secret proprietary formula that parses science, 200-plus years of historical weather data and natural observation to arrive at an annual winter forecast that is over 80% accurate spanning 200-plus years.

For Geiger, it's about observing the natural world from as many lenses as possible. Duncan, who assumed the editor role in 2024, tends to agree.

On taking on the new role, she says (in her editor bio), "It’s both rewarding and exciting to work with a brand that reminds all of us to unplug and get outside to enjoy the wonders of nature."

Sandi Duncan, current editor for the Farmers' Almanac, assumed the reins from editor emeritus Peter Geiger in 2024.

And if you look at some of the other weather signals, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and long range scientific weather modeling, this year's forecast looks like it will be another in the win column for Duncan, Geiger and team.

For the record, the Almanac is calling for a "wet winter whirlwind" in Canada for winter 2024-25.

The ENSO model for 2024-25 is trending towards cooler and wetter.

With ENSO shifting from an El Niño into a La Niña phase, the science supports that with expectations of cooler temperatures and more precipitation into the coming season.

Long range modeling on precipitation, while more difficult to guarantee, also suggests we'll see more snow this year. Which, as anyone in Western Canada knows, is good news after nearly two El Niño years characterized by intense heat, wildfire and drought.

Preciptiation forecast models suggest a snowier winter for 2024-25 as well.

Beyond the environmental benefits, of course, there are recreational perks. More snow means better snowboarding and skiing (downhill and nordic), snowshoeing, fat biking and winter Zen adventures.

It's the latter we're most keen to celebrate as winter looms. Western Canada is rich in winter experiences that bring ZEN, from watching northern lights to skating wild ice to gliding on skis through quiet forests, and more.

Here's your seasonal reminder: it's time to start planning for winter adventure.