Alberta, BC weather update for summer 2024 brings the heat

Wet weather = good news for Alberta 

The cooler and more moist conditions have eased the severity of ongoing drought, with a wetter trend in Alberta bringing relief to the agricultural sector and improvement to mountain snowpacks across the south. 

This has enabled river and reservoir levels to increase, improving water supply for downstream activities. Wetter conditions across much of northern Alberta have also significantly reduced fire danger, with 38 times less area burned in 2024 as of July 1 compared with the same time last year.

BC weather still drier than normal 

In British Columbia, relatively more area has burned due to wildfires, though still nearly three times less than this time last year. 

Most wildfires have been limited to the northeastern corner of the province, where intense, large burns initiated by lightning in 2023 retreated into deep, organic soils during the winter. As soon as warm, windy weather returned this spring following the mild and dry winter, many of these fires roared back to life. 

Elsewhere across British Columbia, an already low mountain snowpack has been seeing an accelerated melt, where varying degrees of drought continue to plague the province. Drought is worst in northeastern BC, with conditions improving somewhat with southward extent into the interior.

All of these factors could determine how the summer of 2024 ultimately pans out.

What to expect for weather this summer 

Long range forecast models across the board continue to forecast warmer and drier than average conditions through July and August across BC and Alberta. 

Long term weather models 

Models suggest this could be driven in part by sea surface temperature patterns across the North Pacific, shaping a persistent jet stream pattern that favours persistent upper ridging straddled over the Continental Divide of North America.

Under upper ridge conditions, air sinks and warms in the atmosphere over a large area, resulting in plentiful sunshine and high temperatures. 

In BC, there could be periods of true, hot weather throughout the interior and South Coast. 

In Alberta, periods of humid weather could be possible thanks to the transpiration of maturing crops following the wet conditions in recent weeks. 

Storm chasing season on deck 

During times when the upper ridge weakens or upper disturbances move through the jet stream, thunderstorms will be possible.

Pro tip: peak lightning threat in mountainous regions tends to occur in the afternoon hours, necessitating early starts and finishes for outdoor activities. 

In the prairie region of Alberta, severe thunderstorms with hail and tornadoes could be possible at times. 

Alberta/BC wildfire outlook 

Overall, though, it looks like it will be drier than normal once again through the summer, bringing deepening drought, reduced river flows, and increases in wildfire danger through July and into August.

The stage could be set in the coming weeks for a smoky back half of summer, as wildfires could become more likely throughout the BC interior and the inland Pacific Northwest.

Even earlier in the summer, smoke from the wildfires in northeastern BC could move into the prairies and beyond at times when northerly wind shifts occur.

Get ready to beat the heat

Nonetheless, there should still be ample, prolonged periods of excellent weather across BC and Alberta for getting after it, especially through July. As always, limit strenuous outdoor activity when hot and smoky, and avoid being outside when thunderstorms threaten. Play safe!